sábado, 3 de março de 2012

The political chess 2012 municipal election in São Paulo.


THE POLITICAL CHESS 2012 MUNICIPAL ELECTION IN SÃO PAULO. What still is today, tomorrow will be yesterday. This is the philosophy of Gilberto Kassab, one of the most strategic political actors in the current moment of Brazilian politics.
José Luiz Gomes writes:
Before the decision of José Serra in the elections for the City of São Paulo in 2012, the mayor of the capital, Gilberto Kassab, sat with the governor Geraldo Alckmin to talk about the election. Old fox in politics, Alckmin would soon realize the godson of the Sierra matreirice: Wedding in marriage, the bride leave the PSDB after buttering bread. An agreement in the circumstances proposed by Kassab, mean, ultimately displacing the PSDB more feathered his nest. Obviously not reached an agreement. Little is said about it, but the movements of Alckmin indicate that he did not intend to be restricted to the largest state of the Federation.Kassab then proceeded to flirt with the Plateau, under the patronage of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. In Brasilia, on the occasion of the celebrations of 32 years of the Party, the mayor was even booed by PT against the alliance. Nothing that could not be circumvented by the chiefs of the subtitle. The agreement was about to be confirmed. Even the spaces that occupy the new caption in Explanada Ministries were being prospected, since it does not negate the physiological appetite PT Paulista, a headache for Rousseff.Who else outlined resistance alliance was the group of Senator Suplicy, known by the firm in their positions, even contrary to the party. As stated in the newspapers, do not feel comfortable sitting at the table with Kassab, to discuss campaign strategies of the former Minister Fernando Haddad. It is enough to recall the stirring of spirit between them in the last campaign, where the PT made against some indelicadezas Kassab. Surely he would not like to sit with Martha.Even under such circumstances, a determination of Lula would seal the agreement between the PT and the PSD. The announcement of the candidacy of Serra, however, changed significantly the political chessboard in the state capital. At least one point has been Kassab coherent. He said from the beginning that his support for a possible candidacy of Serra would be unconditional. Serra was the guarantor of the campaign that led to Gilberto Kassab Matarazzo Building. His debt of gratitude to Sierra is great. Lula's recent statements indicate the delay in the decision of the PT, the reason for not closing the deal.Sierra candidate, Kassab moved away harassment PT, triggering a tsunami in the core command of the campaign Haddad. There is no doubt that the PT accused the coup. Serra is a competitive candidate, partly as a favorite and adds around him, as important forces in the PSD, the DEM and, possibly, the BSP Governor Eduardo Campos, who had already closed some deals with Alckmin. The PSB participates Alckmin government, through its regional president, Marcio France, Secretary of Tourism of St. Paul. Alckmin yielded to the demands of the party in strategic cities of the State, as Campinas, and became an important ally for the "Kid" Gardens Foundation Nabuco.The Plateau has nourished some hopes of reversing the picture, because it has some cards up his sleeve, as the high investment that the Federal Government has been doing in the state of Pernambuco and a long alliance with the PT. Between the lines, it is said that Edward had said he would support any Alckmin the PSDB candidate, José Serra least. In frying eggs, as stated by the journalist Josias de Souza, the UOL portal, Eduardo Campos's dilemma is simple: you have to make a choice between their interests and the interests of PT. There is yet another complicating factor. Alckmin was campaigner for the election of Anne Arraes to the Court of Audit If he delay his national project for 2018, there is the possibility of some "arrangements" without irreversible trauma.Traditional ally of toucans in the square, the DEM this time, decided to make some major requirements. Sketched even launch a bid for best bargain in the negotiations. No chance for the DEM to support another candidate who does not Serra, but some are demanding compensation for three precious minutes they have on television. Conditioned support for José Serra in Sao Paulo, the PSDB in support of major cities for the Democrats, such as Salvador and Recife. If you closed an agreement to that effect, the grain-toucans have to convince Sergio Guerra to support the candidacy of former Governor Mendonça Filho to the City of Recife. Maybe that's why Daniel Coelho has moved so much in recent days.While the PT accuses the shock - leading Dirceu, in an article published in Jolugue Blog - make a call to pre-campaign, Serra, who sleeps little, ever put your block on the street. Captained by Kassab, anticipated negotiations with the PSB, talking with the chief city of the legend in the state capital, Elisha Gabriel de Pieri. As one who decides things in the party is still Eduardo Campos, that does not mean that the plateau may consider the issue as a hopeless case.Another source of problems for the Plateau is the PR, which requires Rousseff the resumption of their participation in the condominium government, precisely the Transport folder. Luiz Carlos Passos was a choice of Rousseff, and the party does not feel contemporizado the Government. How can Dilma reluctant to have to deliver key henhouse to the foxes club. Some of the names submitted by the party were flatly rejected by the president. The party gave the deadline until the end of March so that the impasse be overcome. To provoke the decision of the Plateau, launched the application clown Tiririca the mayor of Sao Paulo.The big question that arises in relation to the candidacy of José Serra is a rejection measured by Datafolha, hovering around 30% of the electorate Sao Paulo. This is a statistic that toucans know that Serra must reverse. The biggest problem is that this rejection is caused mainly due to the resignation of Serra in 2006. Jealous of the problem, Serra has already begun to declare to the four corners that, if elected, meets the 04-year term. Was no longer in their plans the presidency. Of course, no doubt about it, despite the optimism of some candidates for the presidential elections of 2014, with his decision to run for mayor of São Paulo.See the situation in which it is Gilberto Kassab, a rock sung by the editor of the blog, long before, in his numerous articles. This is an important political actor for national plans for Eduardo Campos, especially the fragility of the PSB in strategic squares, such as the Southeast; Whatever the PSDB candidate, the party can not do without their support one of the largest colleges election of the country, affiliated with the Sierra elected and PSD, allows the party itself afford a presidential bid in 2014, the Plateau, in turn, in more than one occasion, has shown that you want your pass. If confirmed a deputy Eduardo Campos in 2014, a slate headed by Rousseff, then there is that it is inside it, pulling votes in Sao Paulo, as a candidate for the Palace of Pioneers. Therefore, for Kassab, one of the most important actors of the current board of Brazilian politics, which today still is today, tomorrow will be yesterday. Yesterday he was leaving the City so worn and sad. Today, it has become one of the main parts of the political gear being mounted targeting the 2014 elections.
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