Publisher: How far can Lula concede to Centrão?

As we have already reported here, the Centrão, which is no fool, has already forwarded the invoice to the Planalto Palace even before the vote on the Tax Reform. A misunderstanding on the part of the Government about whether or not to keep Minister Daniela Carneiro, of Tourism, generated a frisson with União Brasil that almost put everything at risk during the vote. The bill to be paid is very high. Apart from the more than R$ 7 billion released in amendments, a ministry for the PP and another for the Republicans is still under negotiation, in addition to state-owned companies such as Correios, Embratur and Caixa Econômica Federal.

There is a limit to these concessions and, presumably, the limit will be imposed by the government's social area. A good political thermometer for us to know whether or not the Government is going to give in on this ground is to keep an eye on the Ministry of Social Development, which pilots the flagship of social policies aimed at serving the poorest population in the country: Bolsa Família. Centrão's greed for the Ministry of Health met with strong resistance from sectors of the Government and, above all, from the population, strengthening Minister Nísia Trindade. At least for a while.

There is a lot of talk about a great victory for the Government regarding the vote on the Tax Reform. In fact, despite the arrangements and criticism, something that we needed to unlock for a long time was unlocked. There were some elements of consensus between the Government and the Opposition. On the other hand, the approved reform still needs to be improved. We are also concerned about the "republican" cost of such approval, producing heavy burdens on the Government, elected within a platform that will certainly be compromised as it gives in to pressure from the Centrão.​